China International Finance Securities e sa tsoa tlaleha hore lefatše lohleTransceiver ea mahlo Mmaraka o lebelletsoe ho fihla ho lidolara tse libilione tse 10 ka 2021, 'me 'maraka oa lapeng o nka karolo e fetang 50 lekholong. Ka 2022, ho tsamaisoa ha 400GTransceiver ea mahlos ka tekanyo e kholo le keketseho e potlakileng ea molumo oa 800GTransceiver ea mahlos li lebelletsoe, hammoho le kholo e tsoelang pele ea tlhokeho ea lihlahisoa tse phahameng tsa optical chip. Ntle le moo, ho latela Omdia, sebaka sa mmaraka sa li-chips tsa optical tse sebelisoang ho 25G le ka holimo ho sekhahlaTransceiver ea mahlos e lebelletsoe ho eketseha ho tloha ho $ 1.356 bilione ka 2019 ho isa ho $ 4.340 billion ka 2025, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo ea 21.40%.
Ha u sheba kholo ea tlhokahalo ea lichifi tsa optical ho tloha ponelopele eaTransceiver ea mahlo indasteri.
LightCounting e bolela esale pele hore 'maraka oa lefats'e oa transceiver o tla hola ka 4.34% ka 2023, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa 11.43% ho tloha 2024 ho isa 2027.
Ho latela mokoloto oa CICC, boholo ba mmaraka oa lefats'e oa li-chips tsa optical bakeng sa puisano ka 2021 e lebelletsoe ho ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 14.67. Mebaraka ea boholo ba 2.5G, 10G, 25G le li-chips tsa optical tse ka holimo ke li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 1.167, li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 2.748, le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 10.755 ka ho latellana. Omdia o bolela esale pele hore boholo ba mmaraka oa li-chips tsa optical tse sebelisoang bakeng sa 25G le li-module tsa optical ka 2021 e tla ba lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 1.913, kapa li-yuan tse ka bang limilione tse likete tse 13.
Ho ipapisitsoe le lintlha tsena, ho hakanngoa hore 'maraka oa lefats'e oa puisano oa optical chip o tla ikarabella bakeng sa 18-20% ea mmaraka oa optical module ka 2021. Boholo bo tsamaellanang le boholo ba mmaraka oa optical chip bo baloa ho ipapisitsoe le 18% ea mmaraka oa "low-end optical module". le 20% ea 'maraka oa maemo a holimo.
Hona joale, boholo ba li-transceivers tsa optical tse nang le sebopeho sa lihlahisoa tse hōlileng tsebong li amohela sebopeho sa mechine e mene ea PSM4 kapa CWDM4. Li-chips tsa Optical tsa 10G le ka tlase li batla li lumellana le 1G, 10G, le 40G optical modules. Ho latela lintlha tse boletsoeng esale pele tsa LightCounting, thomello ea 1G, 10G, le 40G digital communication optical modules e tla qala ho theoha ho tloha 2023, e leng se bakang ho theoha ha 'maraka ho tloha ho lidolara tse limilione tse 614 ka 2022 ho ea ho lidolara tse limilione tse 150 ka 2027. Ho nka karolo ea 18% e le karolo, boholo ba 'maraka oa chip ea mahlo bo lebelletsoeng ho theoha ho tloha ho $111 milione ka 2022 ho isa ho $27 milione ka 2027.
Mehaho ea marang-rang ea setsi sa data e feta mokhoa oa khale oa 10G / 40G CLOS. Lik'hamphani tse ngata tsa Inthanete tsa malapeng li sebetsa mohahong oa 25G / 100G CLOS, ha lik'hamphani tsa Amerika Leboea li ntse li fetela ho 100G / 400G CLOS e tsoetseng pele le 800G marang-rang a meralo. Li-module tsa optical tsa digital tsa lebelo le phahameng ka har'a 100G-800G haholo-holo li sebelisa DFB le EML laser chips, 'me tekanyo ea baud ke 25G, 53G, 56G. Boholo ba lihlahisoa tsa 800G optical module tse teng hona joale 'marakeng li amohela mohaho oa 8 * 100G 'me li sebelisa lisebelisoa tse robeli tsa 56G EML PAM4 optical.
Lintlha tse boletsoeng esale pele tsa LightCounting li bonts'a hore thomello ea li-module tsa optical tse sebetsang ho 25G, 100G, 400G le 800G li tla tsoela pele ho hola ho tloha 2023 ho isa 2027. Nakong ena, boholo ba mmaraka bo lebelletsoe ho eketseha ho tloha ho USD 4.450 limilione tse likete ho ea ho USD 5 limilione tse likete ka 2022. E tla ba lidolara tse libilione tse 7.269 ka 2027, e leng sekhahla se khahlang sa lilemo tse 5 sa kholo ea 10.31%. Mmaraka o tsamaellanang oa chip o boetse o lebelletsoe ho hola ho tloha ho $890 milione ho isa ho $1.453 billion.
Wirelesskgutlisetsa morao Tlhokahalo ea 10G e tsitsitse, tlhoko ea 25G e ntse e hola
Ho tloha ka Pulungoana 2022, meaho ea 5G ea China e fihlile sehlohlolong, ka liteishene tsa mantlha tse limilione tse 2.287 tse kentsoeng naheng ka bophara. Leha sekhahla sa kholo ea kaho ea liteishene tsa setsi se fokotsehile, lintlha li bonts'a hore ka ntlafatso e tsoelang pele ea ho kenella ha 5G le ho ntlafatsa lits'ebetso, tlhoko ea ho atolosoa ha marang-rang a midhaul le backhaul e ntse e eketseha. Le hoja thepa ea lefats'e ea 10G le 25G optical module e fokotsehile ho tloha 2022 ho ea 2027, ho lebeletsoe hore boholo ba 'maraka oa wireless fronthaul optical modules bo tla ntlafala ka 2026, ha optical modules ka holimo ho 50G e tla qala ho kenngoa ka lihlopha. Litsebi tsa indasteri li lumela hore 50G le 100G optical modules e ka 'na ea se ke ea khanna maraka a 5G fronthaul ho fihlela 2026, ha 25G le ka holimo ho 5G fronthaul optical modules li lebeletsoe ho tsitsisa ho $ 420 limilione pakeng tsa 2023 le 2025. Ha tlhokahalo ea sephethephethe sa 5G e ntse e tsoela pele ho hola, thomello ea li-transceivers tsa 5G bohareng le 10G e lebelletsoe ho eketseha ho tloha ho li-unit tse limilione tse 2.1 ho 2022 ho isa ho li-unit tse limilione tse 3.06 ka 2027, ka CAGR ea lilemo tse hlano ea 7.68%. Tlhokahalo e ntseng e hola ea mmaraka e lebelletsoe ho tsitsisa 'maraka oa 10G le ka tlase ho optical module ho $90 milione,' me mmaraka o tsamaellanang oa chip o hakanngoa hoo e ka bang $ 18.1 milione. Bohareng le 'marakeng oa backhaul, tlhokahalo ea 25G, 100G, le 200G optical modules e lebelletsoe ho boloka kholo e potlakileng ho tloha 2023,' me boholo ba mmaraka oa 25G le ka holimo ho bohareng le backhaul optical modules bo lebelletsoe ho eketseha ho tloha ho US $ 103 milione ka 2022. ho isa ho US $ 171 milione ka 2027. Sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo ke 10.73%. Mmaraka o lumellanang oa chip o boetse o lebelletsoe ho hola ho tloha ho $21 milione ho isa ho $34 milione.
Tlhokahalo ea Wired 10G PON e ntse e hola
Leano la China la Lilemo tse Hlano la Lilemo tse Hlano bakeng sa indasteri ea infocomm le beha lipehelo tse kholo bakeng sa meralo ea motheo ea dijithale ea naha. Nakong ena, 'muso o rera ho sebelisa marang-rang a gigabit fiber optic ho potlakisa ho hahoa ha "litoropo tsa gigabit" le ho atolosa tšireletso ea marang-rang a gigabit ho pholletsa le naha. Qetellong ea 2022, lik'hamphani tse tharo tsa mantlha tsa likhokahano li lebelletse hore palo eohle ea basebelisi ba phihlello ea marang-rang ea Marang-rang e tla fihla ho limilione tse 590. Har'a bona, sekhahla sa phihlello ea 100Mbps le holimo e ne e le limilione tse 554, keketseho ea limilione tse 55.13 ho feta selemong se fetileng. Ka nako e ts'oanang, palo ea basebelisi ba ho fihlella ka sekhahla sa 1000 Mbps le holimo e fihlile ho limilione tse 917,5, keketseho ea limilione tse 57.16 ho feta selemo se fetileng. Ho sa tsotellehe tsoelo-pele ena, ho ntse ho e-na le sebaka sa ntlafatso, 'me ho kenella ha ba ngolisitseng Gigabit ho lebeletsoe ho ba 15.6% feela qetellong ea 2022. Ho fihlela sena, mmuso o khothalletsa kaho ea marang-rang a 10G-PON metseng le libakeng tsa bohlokoa. toropo, e shebaneng le ho atolosa litaba. Ka December 2022, palo ea likou tsa 10G PON tse nang le bokhoni ba tšebeletso ea marang-rang ea Gigabit li tla fihla ho limilione tse 15.23, tse koahelang malapa a fetang limilione tse 500 ho pholletsa le naha. Sena se etsa sekhahla sa marang-rang sa gigabit sa China le boemo ba ts'ireletso har'a tse phahameng ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng. Ha re sheba pele, 'maraka oa PON o tla tsoela pele ho ntlafala,' me LightCounting e bolela esale pele hore thomello eaPONli-transceivers optical ka tlase ho 10G li tla fokotseha ho tloha 2022. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ho lebeletsoe hore thepa ea 10G PON e hōle ka potlako, e fihle ho li-unit tsa limilione tse 26.9 ho 2022 le li-unit tse limilione tse 73 ho 2027, tse nang le CAGR ea lilemo tse hlano ea 22.07%. Leha boholo ba mmaraka oa 10G optical modules bo tla fokotseha ho tloha tlhorong ea bona ka 2022, 'maraka o lumellanang oa chip o tla theoha ho tloha ho US $ 141.4 milione ho isa ho US $57 milione. Ha re shebile pele, 25G PON le 50G PON li lebelletsoe ho fihlela thomello e nyane ka 2024, e lateloe ke thomello e kholo lilemong tse latelang. Ho hakanngoa hore boholo ba 'maraka ba 25G le ka holimo ho PON optical modules bo tla feta lidolara tse limilione tse 200 ka 2025,' me 'maraka o lumellanang le optical chip o tla fihla ho lidolara tse limilione tse 40 tsa US. Ka kakaretso, meralo ea motheo ea dijithale ea China e tla tsoela pele ho hola le ho hola lilemong tse tlang.
Nako ea poso: Mar-22-2023